The SCARE is a predictive model that is designed to locate caches holding material used for improvised explosive devices, or IEDs, by combining information about past IED attacks, information about geographic terrain, and tribal and ethnic relationships. Using only open source data, the researchers say the were able to predict IED attack within .72 km for Baghdad, and within .35 km accuracy for Sadr City, a Shi’ite section of Baghdad. Unlike traditional social network analysis, which looks primarily at the network of people–those who finance, plan and emplace the bombs—SCARE focuses on the geographic location of key sites involved in IED attacks. University of Maryland researchers have also applied the SCARE model to tracking so-called “high value targets,” or HTVs, in Afghanistan. The SCARE software was able to identify regions that contained significant number of HTVs.
Source(s): “Abductive Inference for Combat”